Post Election Rundown: Some facts about OC turnout and precinct comparisons

November 27, 2016 - Overall turnout for the 2016 Presidential Election is currently 10.2% higher than the 2012 Presidential Election. Overall turnout for the 29th State Senate District is 12.9% higher than the 2012 Presidential Election. A fact often overlooked is our extensive list maintenance that took place in 2013 - reducing overall registration by 350,000 countywide. The practical effect? In 2012, a precinct with 500 registered voters and 135 voters voting, would show a turnout of 26%. That same precinct, in 2016, with 350 registered voters and the same number voting (135) would show a turnout of 37.14%.

We've taken a close look at the 318 precincts that have the same precinct number in both 2012 and 2016, and have at least 1 voter registered in the 29th Senate District.

155 of these precincts had a percentage change in turnout greater than 12.9%, which would be expected, since this is near the median. Some precincts have seen a large increase in turnout percentages for various reasons. Below are examples representing the precincts with the highest increase in turnout percentage:

• Precinct 13091 saw an increase of 50% turnout, which is the highest increase in this district. In 2012, the precinct had 6 registered voters, and 3 votes. In 2016, there are 3 registered voters and 3 votes.

• Precinct 17628 had the next highest increase in percentage turnout. The current percentage turnout in this precinct is actually lower than the average turnout for the 29th State Senate District. The reason for the sharp increase is due to a low turnout in 2012. The low turnout in 2012 can be attributed to an unusually large turnout in precinct 17624, which was at the same polling place. Although voters were given a correct ballot, the precinct number was incorrectly reported as 17624.

• Precinct 13391 had an increase in turnout percentage of 33.6%. The boundaries of this precinct changed in 2016 due to recent changes in district boundaries. The registration dropped from 547 voters to 86 voters, and this precinct became an all vote-by-mail ballot precinct. 

The examples above demonstrate the reasons for large changes in turnout percentage.